Welcome to the first of our ‘Predictions’ bulletins for 2026.

In 2026, UK employers will face a challenging labour market marked by high employee turnover, a skills gap in tech and green energy, and pressure to adapt to a multigenerational workforce. Key predictions include a potential “mass employee exodus” driven by dissatisfaction with pay and leadership, and the need for companies to manage age-diverse teams with flexible policies and tailored benefits. Inflation is expected to ease and the minimum wage to rise, while the economy is predicted to see modest GDP growth.

High employee turnover

A “mass employee exodus” could be on the horizon for 2026 as almost half of UK office workers are planning a potential career change in the new year, the Global Payroll Alliance (GPA) has said. In a survey of over 2,500 UK office workers, it found that many are seeking greener pastures with better pay, better leaderships, and more promising career progression opportunities.

Some key findings

  • 47% are planning a potential career change in 2026, a fifth of whom (19%) say their minds are already made up on the matter.
  • Of those considering a career move in the new year, 38% are actively searching job listings, while 15% have submitted applications for new positions. A further 7% have attended interviews, while 3% have already received offers from new employers.
  • When asked why they are so keen to move on, a fifth (21%) are looking for a higher salary, 16% desire a new challenge or a change of professional scenery, and 15% have grown tired of management shortcomings and weak leadership.

Meanwhile, 13% are looking for a better work/life balance, and 12% want a job that offers more opportunities for advancement.

However, despite many having set their plans in motion, employees do have a chance to retain their staff, the GPA said. A quarter (25%) say they would be tempted to stay put if they received a pay rise, 17% may postpone their departure if management and leadership improve, and 16% will stay put if their company can demonstrate greater potential for career progression.

A further 15% say that all their employer needs to do is offer more recognition and reward for achievements and good performance, while the offer of more flexible working patterns would be sufficient to persuade another 12% to stay.

Clearly, not all employee retention comes down to pay. Workers are telling us that leadership, flexibility, and career development are just as important. Even when budgets are tight, businesses can still invest in better management, foster a culture of recognition, and show a clear path forward for their staff. Those that do will be far better placed to retain their teams and weather the challenges ahead.

If we can support you with any of those challenges, please get in touch.